Why People Buy Toilet Paper During Crises

Winston Churchill once famously stated that, “The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. Ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.” It is an incontrovertible truth that the amount of toilet paper you hoarded during the pandemic had nothing to do with your actual survival. Yet, we all did it anyway. We stood in line to buy our precious toilet paper and, in some cases, people even fought over the last package. It was perhaps one of the stranger trends to come out of the pandemic and yet, it can be instructive for the purposes of riding out the next global health crisis. The psychology behind the run on toilet paper is truly fascinating and with your permission, we’ll take you on a deep dive behind the trend that took the United States and the world by storm in 2020. 

Understanding the Importance of Information Cascades in a Crisis

In economics, the concept of an information cascade occurs when people begin basing decisions solely on the actions of others while ignoring their own personal knowledge. A great example would be the old adage that when a snowstorm is about to hit, one must head to the grocery store in order to buy bread and milk. Nevermind that you are lactose intolerant and allergic to gluten, if others are buying it in bulk, then they must know something that you do not. 

Most of us had never given much concern to the idea that we might run out of toilet paper until others started buying it in bulk. Then, it was off to the races as human nature took its course. Once toilet paper was believed to be scarce, it became a coveted item. There is another concept known as the availability heuristic. As the media began to report these shortages and showed us videos of the fights for toilet paper, we humans kicked into survival mode. 

At the end of the day, our brains truly believed that survival was dependent on access to clean toilet paper. When, in reality, it had nothing to do with the survival situation itself. Certainly, survival is more comfortable with some good 2-ply in the home, but it is not dependent on it. The toilet paper crisis of 2020 was a masterclass on the human brain and we would do well to take certain lessons with us into more dire survival scenarios. 

Trust Your Information and Trust the Plan You Have in Place

With information cascades, you must balance continually assessing new threats with trusting the plan you have in place. Crowds will panic and herd mentality will take over from there. There is no need for you to fight the herd for toilet paper based on this false sense of panic. 

You may know that you have plenty of toilet paper stockpiled and you are well aware that humans were able to wipe for thousands of years before the invention of modern toilet paper. Yet, when you see your neighbors rushing to the store to stock up, that information cascade will have a powerful effect on you. You have a plan in place. You have been preparing for the day most people dread for sometime now. You do not have to follow the herd. 

Survival Belongs to the Early and Fast

In a scarce environment, all one has to do to meet hard times is be a little late and a little slow. A little late to the grocery store and you’ll see nothing but empty shelves. A little slow to fill up the car with gas and you’ll find yourself in a line that stretches miles down the road for the last gallon of gas. If you can be one of the early ones to recognize the potential for crisis, then you will be better prepared. 

Over the past year, our gas masks have become among our most requested products as people seek to prepare in advance of potential disruptions. We pride ourselves on quick shipping, but delivery times after a major event may be unpredictable. 

The internet could be down in its entirety for such a crisis and, even if not, when thousands of people start flooding websites to purchase personal protective equipment, that may become a logistical problem. The first person to recognize the great toilet paper crisis of 2020 could have loaded up at bulk goods stores and sold toilet paper for $50 bucks a roll. Fortune and survival favor the bold. Be fast and be early to claim what you need before the information cascade kicks in and others want it too. 

The Supply Chain is Built for Predictable Consumption

The reality is that there was never any massive shortage of toilet paper in the United States during the pandemic. It was, however, difficult to find for many. That’s because the U.S. supply chain is built around the principle of predictable consumption. Industry experts knew how fast the average family runs through toilet paper and the supply was built to ensure that it was always on the shelf. 

This was until people started buying months worth of toilet paper at a time and began hoarding it. When everyone runs to the stores to buy several month's supply of toilet paper at once, it was a shock to the supply chain. The factories were still making plenty. Shipping methods were still in place to get the toilet paper to the stores. People just purchase it at an otherwise unpredictable and irrational rate. 

Rather than waiting for a crisis to stock up, make modest, practical additions to your regular shopping list. Buy only what you realistically expect to need, adding one or two essential items per trip so you build a small reserve without excess. If a large upfront purchase isn’t feasible, modest weekly or monthly additions can accumulate into a useful supply over time. 

A Step by Step Guide to Acquiring Survival Gear in Bulk

Image source: MIRA Safety

Finally, we’ll end this writing by offering a step by step guide on how you can stock up on the products offered by MIRA Safety before gas masks become the new toilet paper of the next crisis. You can survive a few days without water and a few weeks without food. You can only survive a few minutes without air. 

A gas mask is a very reasonable place to start when building your survival supplies. Start with one gas mask as you can afford it and then be sure to move on to one for each member of your family. We began offering  gas masks for children  after recognizing the difficulty parents would face ensuring safe air for their children. We regret not providing them earlier; they are now available and will remain part of our product line. 

Once you have a gas mask for every member of your family, you can then start by purchasing additional gas mask filters over time. Many of these filters have a 10-year or 20-year shelf life. Don’t break the bank by purchasing them in bulk all at once. Slow is smooth and smooth is fast when it comes to acquiring supplies. 

You can also start acquiring the medicines and decontamination equipment you will need to survive longer. Again, acquire over time, but don’t delay. Still be fast and early to pick up medicines like potassium iodide tablets. They are not expensive and should you ever need them, you will have them available in your bug-out bag. 

We love seeing repeat customers, not just because that means they are enjoying our products. Rather, it shows that they are embracing the long-haul process of prepping. We believe that persons of all budgets should be able to acquire the gear they need for their family overtime. Yesterday was the best day to start preparing, but today is always the second best day. It doesn’t matter how you get started, just make sure you do it. 

A Summary Review of the Pandemic Toilet Paper Rush

The human mind is a powerful thing and it causes all of us to do things we otherwise might not when stressed. Despite my awareness of these factors and spending six years in the Marine Corps where I used items far less pleasant than 2-ply toilet paper, I was worried about toilet paper during the pandemic. Supporting a family of 5 will do that to a man and I just didn’t see the run on toilet paper coming. 

Information cascades are a powerful phenomenon and it will take hold of the masses during the next crisis. For a snowstorm that is bread and milk. For the pandemic, it was toilet paper. We really can’t say for sure what it will be in the future. Just look for the signs of it early and strive not to be a little late or a little slow in making a decision. If people will fight over toilet paper, imagine what they will do over basic needs like air, food and water. 

If you are stocking up on paper goods like toilet paper, don’t forget air filtration. One is indeed more essential than the other. Until then, keep planning, practice your plans often, and if you haven’t started yet, today is the next best day to get going. 

About the author

Jeff Edwards is a United States Marine veteran of Iraq, where he served as an Infantryman with 3rd Battalion 23rd Marines. He holds a Master's in Public Administration and is a frequent writer on military history, tactics, and firearms. Residing in the Inland Pacific Northwest, Jeff can be found enjoying the great outdoors throughout Washington, Idaho, and Montana.