From Battlefields to U.S. Shores: FBI Warns of Possible Iranian Drone Attack Scenario

Law enforcement agencies across California were recently notified by the FBI about a potential Iranian threat to send drones from vessels in the Pacific to attack the state. The threat was not specific and the intelligence unverified, but the justification for awareness and preparedness has been met. Iranian drones are known to have ranges of 600 miles to 1,500 miles. That far exceeds the 12 mile range in which one reaches international waters and even the 200 mile range that comprises a nation’s exclusive economic zone. 

Preparedness doesn’t reside only in the realm of the probable. Rather, it resides within the realm of the possible. Is it possible, that in the vast expanse of the Pacific, that Iran can get a drone within 600 to 1,500 miles of the west coast? The answer is discernibly, yes. Here’s what prepared citizens need to know about the potential Iranian drone threat off the coast of California. 

Preparing for the Iranian Threat Against the U.S. Homeland

By definition, prepping is the opposite of panic. Preparedness is the name of the game, and that leads one to consider the possible. The United States maintains a large and capable Navy with robust intelligence capabilities. Those considering hostile actions near its coastlines should be cautious.

That being said, the Pacific Ocean is massive, as is the state of California. That’s a lot of ground to cover when looking for rogue vessels, and that is a lot of landmass to protect against the emerging drone threat. Despite being in an active state of war, Ukraine is able to hit Moscow with drones and Russia is able to hit Kiev with drones. Even when you are looking for them, drones are hard to stop. 

Given that the average American family doesn’t possess many anti-aircraft batteries, the question then becomes what can they do to prepare. The first step would be to assess their individual risk. How likely is it that your location would be a target for a limited Iranian drone strike? We’ll cover some of the most likely targets. The second, is to assume the strike will be successful. No sense in preparing to stop the drone if you lack the capacity. Assume it is successful and now you are preparing for a “what now” scenario. In this article, we’ll cover both. 

Understanding the Iranian Drone Threat

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Iran has deployed the following drones during their 2026 campaign of retaliation in the Middle East:

Shahed-136: It is a one way attack loitering munition with range of around 600 to 1,500 miles. It travels over 100mph and can carry a 30-50 kg warhead. 

Shahid-107: While its range and speed have not been publicly confirmed, it operates as a smaller lighter version of the Shahed-136. 

Shahid-238: This a jet powered drone which is significantly faster that the Shahed-136, though the actual speed is not confirmed. 

Arash-2: This is a long-range heavy loitering munition with a range of up to 1,200 miles. It is capable of carrying a larger warhead than anything in the Shahed series. 

Hadid-110: This is a high speed jet loitering munition. Its range is not confirmed, but it can travel at speeds of over 300 mph. 

Possible Targets for an Iranian Drone Strike in California

The California coast stretches some 840 miles from the northern border with Oregon to the southern border with Mexico. Meaning, with a range of 600 to 1,500 miles, a single Iranian drone located off the west coast could strike the entire state from a single fixed point. This puts the entire state at play for such a rogue vessel, but we can discern the most likely targets based on their value. 

Los Angeles

The city of angels offers the greatest performative value. Meaning, striking Los Angeles would be the most camera worthy. By striking the U.S. west coast, Iran is not trying to achieve any tactical military success. Rather, they are trying to shape U.S. public opinion of the war by bringing the war home to the citizenry. Los Angeles provides the optics that Iran would seek to exploit with such a strike. 

Beyond that, the Port of Long Beach serves as one of the most significant shipping hubs in the United States. A strike against the port would cripple shipping on the west coast for some time. This would be both performative and tactical to harm U.S. commerce. Meanwhile, downtown Los Angeles would be an alluring target for its optics and the chances to create the most casualties. 

San Francisco

Perhaps only second to Los Angeles, San Francisco would make the next best performative target. The Golden Gate bridge is an iconic piece of Americana, and if Iran can’t cripple the United States with a limited drone strike, they certainly could strike fear into the heart of it. It is unclear what drone capacity it would take to take the bridge, but a drone assault would put on quite the show. Again, Iran is not seeking to shape the battlefield with such a strike. They are seeking to shape the hearts and minds of Americans against the conflict. 

San Diego

From a tactical military standpoint, an attack on San Diego would yield the highest military casualties. San Diego is the home port to 24% of the U.S. Navy ships. This includes aircraft carriers which are the prized target for any foreign adversary. Striking U.S. Navy ships in port would bring back images of Pearl Harbor and lead Americans to feeling the vulnerability of the conflict at home. 

U.S. Military Installations on the West Coast 

It is unclear whether an Iranian drone strike would aim to maximize civilian casualties or target military sites to portray the attack as justified. California is home to over 10% of U.S. military installations with 34 of them stretching the length of the state. Any one of them could be considered a legitimate military target. 

Camp Pendleton, which resides between San Diego and Los Angeles, is home to the 1st Marine Division. Thankfully it is a sprawling base and not too much of it could be destroyed with a single drone. San Diego is the principal home port of the U.S. Pacific fleet and a strike against a naval vessel would be more costly. Edwards Air Force Base is home to U.S. flight research and aerospace testing. It could be that Iran just chooses the most convenient target in order to strike and retreat. Any military base on the west coast is a potential target. 

Diablo Canyon Power Plant

The Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant is California’s last remaining operational nuclear plant. It provides approximately 10% of the state’s power and is located directly on the Pacific coast of California. A strike here could not only cripple California’s power, but could produce an ongoing environmental and CBRN disaster that would last for years to come. In Iran’s eyes, it is a viable target given that the U.S. has been targeting the Iranian nuclear program. 

How to Prepare for a Successful Iranian Drone Strike in California

Given that the average American family cannot stop an Iranian drone and given that drone swarms have proven successful even against advanced militaries, we have to then prepare for what’s next. What happens when a strike is successful against your community and what do you do as a result?

The key is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Drones are not 100% accurate and California is a massive state. There is a chance the drone misses any significant target and Iran wasted their shot to strike the homeland. That is the best and while we hope for it, we can’t prepare as if that will be the result. 

The worst case scenario would be a strike on the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant or other core infrastructure that would create an ongoing disaster after the initial blast. California also leads the nation with over 1,100 chemical manufacturing plants that would be undefended targets against such a strike.  

This means preparing for the worst includes preparing for CBRN threats. The best method to do so is to have a professional grade gas mask for every member of your family. You know your community better than anyone. If you live in the middle of the Mojave desert and there is not a single chemical plant for hundreds of miles, you may be fine. However, if you know such a risk exists in your community, now is the time to prepare for the worst. 

Reviewing the Probability of an Iranian Drone Strike on the West Coast

We are not suggesting that prepared individuals rework their entire emergency plan based on the likelihood of an Iranian drone strike off the coast of California. Rather, you can take this plausible threat and use it to examine your existing plan for new and emerging threats. During World War 2, the Japanese launched over 9,000 balloon bombs towards the U.S. Around 300 were found in the U.S. and only one caused casualties. 

Foreign adversaries have longed to strike the U.S. homeland, but the natural defense barriers of the Pacific and Atlantic prove formidable. Drones significantly close the gap between what our adversaries desire and what is possible. While we are in an active conflict with Iran, it is a plausible threat to consider. For the average prepared civilian, not much has to change. Keep on top of the latest information and practice your plan often. If you have not considered such a strike before, there is no better time than now to do so. If we can help you evaluate this threat or consider options, please don’t hesitate to reach out. We can’t say how plausible it is that Iran can pull off such an attack. We just know it's possible and that is enough to spur us on to action and readiness.