How Likely is WW3 to Break Out in 2026?

Winston Churchill once famously stated that “The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.” No one apart from Nostradamus himself can fully predict if World War 3 will break out in 2026. However, the incontrovertible truth is that all the ingredients for WW3 exist and the world has moved closer to that reality in 2026 than we were in 2025.

During the past 12 months, the world has experienced a global reset to diplomatic norms and power structures. Existing alliances are being brought into question and the United States military has taken off the kid gloves when exerting its will around the world. How each major power decides to respond could very alter the course of the world. We’re going to explore a few of these trends not to frighten anyone, but to encourage you to prepare for the day the world dreads. How likely is WW3 to break out in 2026, let’s take a look together.

President Donald Trump and Taking on the International Order

We don’t do politics here, but it is an incontrovertible truth that President Trump is challenging the existing world order. Whether you applaud or lament that truth doesn’t really matter when it comes to the ramifications. The President is in the executive seat and he is going things differently. He is questioning conventional alliances and imposing American priorities throughout the Western Hemisphere. 

The year 2026 kicked off with a bang as U.S. forces entered Venezuela and captured President Maduro and his wife without losing a single soul.  The move was audacious to say the least and spectacular in terms of its unprecedented success. Venezuela had a fully functioning military that seemed powerless to resist U.S. power. 

Rumors of cyberattacks which cripled the power grid and sonic weapons causing Venezuelan soldiers to vomit blood abound. Despite knowing that the U.S. military is remarkably advanced, very few world leaders thought the U.S. had the ability to capture a head of state in such dramatic fashion.  

Trump has put other nations on notice that they could be next and those world leaders are likely sleeping with one eye open. This is unprecedented and the ramifications are not fully known. The U.S.  Department of War is on the march and what lengths other powers will go to stop them are equally unknown. 

We even have the notion that the Danish territory of Greenland should belong to the United States. These are the words of the President and whether you agree or disagree, that have entered the realm of formal policy. It is unclear what a formal break between the United States and Europe over Greenland will bring and it is certainly on the watchlist for 2026. 

The Destabilization of Iran as a Regional Power

The new year has also ushered in civil unrest in Iran which looks like may very well have the power to topple the Islamic regime in power. This comes on the heels of Iran losing their proxies in Hezbollah and Hamas at the hands of the Israeli military. Iran fired everything it had back at Israel and thanks to U.S. cooperation, very few found their target.

It is also clear that both Israel and the U.S. have the ability to operate aircraft in Iranian airspace with impunity. Their nuclear program was bombed and Iran  was helpless to stop it. Iran was supposed to be the major regional power and now it looks like they don’t even belong at the same military table as Israel. 

While this may be a positive trend, it does bring destabilization to a region already at the breaking point. It is not fully known if all nuclear materials were destroyed in the U.S. bombing and we don’t really know how close Iran is creating a nuclear weapon. We do know that the Iranian regime is backed into a corner and they may feel desperate to act. Iran will continue to be a flashpoint in 2026.

Desperation in Ukraine and the Surging Militarization of Europe

For the first time since NATO’s formation, Europe is coming to the realization that they may need to step up in their own defense without the United States by their side. Defense spending is surging in Europe with France acknowledging the need to expand their nuclear arsenal. Every nation in Europe with exception of Spain has expended defense spending to 5% or greater. 

Europe has the GDP, military capacity, and industrial base to compete with Russia on the battlefield. Many estimates are that it would take a decade or more for Russia to recover to its pre-war capabilities that were decimated in the war with Ukraine. What Russia has over Europe is that it has already begun the march towards a war time economy and increased domestic military production. 

All this is coming as Russia is becoming increasingly desperate to win the war in Ukraine. Much like Iran, does Putin feel the need to act now while he still has the capacity. Waiting until Europe rearms to levels not seen since the 1960s could prove disastrous. Both the U.K. and France have expressed their willingness to put troops in Ukraine after the war and Russia has already stated that this is unacceptable. Asking what point does Russia feel like it has nothing left to lose is a reasonable question when determining the likelihood of global war.

China’s Rehearsals for the Invasion of Taiwan Are Becoming Increasingly Realistic

In December of 2025, China conducted live fire military drills in the waters off Taiwan. Named Justice Mission 2025, these drills saw China completely surround the island of Taiwan with massive numbers of ships. It is well known that one of the tactics China would deploy is a complete embargo of the island. That’s exactly what this drill looked like and the Chinese not only have numerical superiority, but technological superiority in the region. 

At some point with continued rehearsals, China is going to feel ready to put the plan into action. Most U.S. military drills run around the scenario have the U.S. taking significant losses and there are few scenarios where our military actually came out on top. China is in full control of the decision on when to invade and with a world already in chaos in 2026, they may decide this is the year. 

This is increasingly likely if the United States gets drawn into regional conflicts with Venezuela, Columbia, or the retaking of the Panama Canal. China will certainly seize upon that distraction and use the precedent set by aggressive U.S. military action in the Caribbean to justify exerting their will on Taiwan.

How the Average American Family Can Prepare for World War 3

Image source: MIRA Safety®

It is of little use to speak of the flashpoints which could plunge the world into war without talking about what the average American family can do to prepare for such a scenario. It is wrong to assume that WW3 would go completely nuclear and there is no hope for survival. Nuclear weapons could be deployed on a smaller and regional scale where, with the right equipment, you can bring your family out alive on the other side. 

We’re not going to cover the basics of prepping in this article as, yes, you should definitely have as much water, food, and ammunition as possible on hand for the day the world goes mad. Surviving World War 3 is just going to take some extra precautions. Surviving WW3 will require you to place an emphasis on Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) threats. 

It starts with maintaining the ability to detect such threats. You’re not going to permanently live in your HAZMAT suit , though owning one is a great idea. Rather, owning basic detection devices such as a handheld Geiger counter can be worth their weight in gold. The same can be said for agents that can detect chemical and biological threats. 

Next one needs to have a plan for decontamination. In WW3, FEMA will not be there to save the day or clean up the mess. You are going to have to take accountability for your own family’s safety. Every location should have three discernible zones for decontamination. The first is the hot zone where contamination is rampant. The next is the warm zone and this is where decontamination takes place. Finally there is the cold zone which is where no contaminated materials or clothes should be taken.

If there is a hot zone on your property, then no one should be present there without the right PPE. When exiting the hot zone, the warm zone should be somewhere nearby, but nowhere near your primary residence. This is where you place your decontamination equipment.  Conduct all decontamination activities here and take none of that to the cold zone such as your home. This is a process that should be well designed and practiced by every member of your family.

The World Is Entering a New and Unique Season of History

Image source: Envato

Whether or not you believe WW3 will kick off in 2026, one at least has to acknowledge this unique season of history. Our minds have been dominated by the post World War 2 power structures and this may lead to failure to prepare for what’s new. The militarization of AI is inevitable and is already in progress. The use of drones will dominate the modern battlefield and it is unclear who holds the greatest advantage. 

We prepare our families not only for the threats we can ponder, but we prepare them for the threats we can’t even imagine. This article was not meant to scare you into thinking WW3 is inevitable in 2026. Rather, we hope that you understand WW3 is possible and seemingly increasingly likely by the year. Now is the time to get your family ready. If we can be of any help to you or answer any question, please don’t hesitate to reach out. Have a plan, practice that plan often, and be sure every  member of your family knows what to do. Stay safe and we’ll all watch the events of 2026 unfold together.

About the author

Jeff Edwards is a United States Marine veteran of Iraq, where he served as an Infantryman with 3rd Battalion 23rd Marines. He holds a Master's in Public Administration and is a frequent writer on military history, tactics, and firearms. Residing in the Inland Pacific Northwest, Jeff can be found enjoying the great outdoors throughout Washington, Idaho, and Montana.