Will Russia Ever Try to Attack the U.S. with Nuclear Weapons?

Will Russia Ever Try to Attack the U.S. with Nuclear Weapons?

by Jay Speakman

With the current geopolitical tension brewing around the world and especially with Russia, a nuclear threat is not something the United States of America can ignore. Though the chances of a nuclear conflict are low, they are not zero, and Russia's recent military activities and statements often make people wonder about their intentions. However, despite this threat, the U.S. has strong defense systems and strategic allies to deter any Russian attacks.

However, this is only at a political level. Personal safety is equally important. That is why this article goes into detail about a nuclear threat from Russia and what it means for you. You must take steps for proper preparation, which means you need to have a basic emergency plan, keep survival kits handy, and stay informed about proper safety procedures. Read on and see what you can do to stay safe in the event of a nuclear strike from Russia.

Table of Contents

  • 01

    What are the Current Nuclear Threats Posed by Russia?

  • 02

    The Role of Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Russian Doctrine

  • 03

    How Likely is Russia to Use Nuclear Weapons Against Ukraine or the U.S.?

  • 04

    What Measures is the U.S. Taking to Prepare for a Potential Nuclear Attack?

  • 05

    Risk of Nuclear War Due to Misinterpretation

  • 06

    Impact of Arms Control Treaties on Russian Nuclear Policy

  • 07

    What Could Trigger a Nuclear Conflict Between Russia and the U.S.?

  • 08

    Military Targets Inside Russian Territory

  • 09

    How Would a Nuclear Attack on the U.S. Unfold?

  • 010

    Possible Scenarios of Nuclear Explosion

  • 011

    Impact on U.S. Civilian and Military Infrastructure

  • 012

    Personal Preparedness for Nuclear Threats

  • 013

    Importance of Emergency Plans and Survival Kits

  • 014

    Resources for Further Information and Preparedness Training

  • 015

    Ensuring Your Safety Amidst Nuclear Threats

What are the Current Nuclear Threats Posed by Russia?

We spoke about Russia's recent military actions, but what are they? Currently, Russia has intensified its non-strategic nuclear exercises in Moscow, especially during the ongoing war with Ukraine. The exercises involve non-strategic and tactical nuclear warheads, which are smaller and intended for use during a battle but not to target entire cities.

These drills aim to test the readiness of military personnel and Russian weapons for combat use. This also includes practical training, deployment, and use of these weapons in the Southern Military District, which borders Ukraine and other areas that Russia has already claimed.

The Role of Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Russian Doctrine

nuclear weapon

Source:Envato

The Russian military doctrine places a strong emphasis on tactical nuclear weapons. Their war strategy is centered on these arms, essentially employed to demonstrate their power instead of actual full-scale atomic conflict. However, these weapons also carry a risk of miscalculation or even escalation into a full-blown armed conflict in case of nuclear escalation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has mentioned these tests, making several statements that highlighted Russia's readiness to use these weapons should there be a threat from the West. Russian military drills and strong demonstrations of nuclear capabilities often accompany his statements. For example, last week, these demonstrations were linked to Putin's statements about Western leaders supporting the Ukrainian military and their willingness to help Ukraine, which he views as a direct provocation.

Both these factors underscore the current ongoing tension and the nuclear threat from Russia. Even though there is little chance that Russia will actually attack, it is still important to monitor the situation closely.

How Likely is Russia to Use Nuclear Weapons Against Ukraine or the U.S.?

Russia's possible nuclear weapons use in Ukraine would be focused on strategic locations within the country to disable its defenses. Potential targets include strong military strongholds or infrastructure. For example, the Luhansk region, particularly around the Troitsky-Svatove-Kreminna line, could be attacked to make these places uninhabitable or to halt Ukrainian advances.

This is why NATO's stance on Russia's nuclear weapon activity is firm and unbending. Any nuclear action will result in a strong response from the alliance. NATO has made it clear that the use of atomic weapons is unacceptable and would result in severe consequences, including military retaliation and a united front from NATO members to defend any affected areas. NATO's preparations include using better missile defense systems, coordinating military responses, and maintaining high readiness to counter potential threats.

Although the primary focus of Russia's attacks has been Ukraine so far, the U.S. also remains a potential target, especially in the event of a nuclear war. Important U.S. cities, like Washington, D.C., New York, and Los Angeles, will be significant to the Russian military and major military installations. Russia could likely target them in the event of an attack on the U.S. In addition to these, military installations such as NORAD in Colorado, nuclear command centers, and other defense-related sites will also be considered high-value targets.

However, the U.S. has taken significant steps to strengthen its own missile defense system and improve its nuclear deterrence strategies, including locating military targets inside Russia. This also includes modernizing its nuclear arsenal, improving its early warning system, and developing impenetrable retaliation capabilities.

The mutually assured destruction (MAD) that governs nuclear-armed states also makes Russia's attack on the U.S. improbable. However, the possibility cannot be entirely dismissed given Russian leadership's heightened tensions and aggressive rhetoric.

What Measures is the U.S. Taking to Prepare for a Potential Nuclear Attack?

The U.S. is significantly upgrading its missile defense capabilities to protect against nuclear threats from Russia. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is developing advanced systems like the Next Generation Interceptor (NGI), a key component of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system. 

This new interceptor is designed to provide a more reliable and technically advanced defense against long-range ballistic missile threats. Additionally, the U.S. is focusing on a multi-layered missile defense architecture that includes sea-based, ground-based, and space-based sensors and interceptors. These technologies undergo continuous testing and improvements so that they are ready to counter evolving threats.

America's Nuclear Arsenal and Deterrence Strategies

high distance racket

Source: Envato

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has outlined a strategy to modernize its nuclear technology. This includes updates to the nuclear triad, which comprises land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers. The fiscal 2023 budget allocated significant funds to sustain and upgrade these nuclear capabilities to remain a credible discouraging force against enemy states.

Furthermore, the DoD emphasizes integrated deterrence, which involves aligning military activities and investments across all domains, including space and cyberspace, to create a strong defense position. This strategy aims to make the cost of aggression against the U.S. or its allies exceedingly high for any adversary​.

This means that the US could attack Russia with long-range Western installations in order to deter threats to use nuclear weapons. With advanced capabilities to strike targets n Russia, the threat of use of nuclear weaponry is likely to lead to mutually assured destruction.

Alliance with NATO for Collective Security

The U.S. works closely with NATO to strengthen collective security against nuclear threats, especially since the invasion of Ukraine. Regular joint exercises, strategic planning, and information sharing are important components of this collaboration as the war in Ukraine shows no signs of slowing down. NATO's integrated air and missile defense systems are designed to protect member states and provide a unified and strong defense against any nuclear bomb attack​.

How Does Russia's Nuclear Doctrine Influence its Military Decisions?

As mentioned earlier, Russia's nuclear doctrine plays a significant role in its military strategy, particularly regarding the use of strategic versus tactical atomic weapons. Strategic nuclear weapons are designed for long-range attacks and massive destruction, targeting entire cities or military bases. In contrast, tactical nuclear weapons are intended for use on the battlefield to achieve specific military objectives with limited geographic impact. They are smaller and can be deployed using various delivery systems, including aircraft, missiles, and artillery.

The distinction between these two types of nuclear weapons helps us understand Russia's approach to deterrence and warfare. For instance, tactical nuclear weapons allow Russia to signal its readiness to escalate a conflict without immediately resorting to full-scale nuclear war, which would invite catastrophic retaliation. This capability provides Moscow with strategic flexibility and a means to stop opponents from engaging in or escalating conflicts. 

Risk of Nuclear War Due to Misinterpretation

One of the biggest risks associated with Russia's nuclear doctrine is the potential for misinterpretation and inadvertent escalation. The use of tactical nuclear weapons in lieu of conventional weapons would trigger alarms, even in a limited capacity, and could be misinterpreted by enemy states as a precursor to a broader atomic conflict. This misinterpretation could trigger a retaliatory response, leading to a rapid and uncontrollable exacerbation of nuclear war​.

Russia's emphasis on nuclear signaling, where it uses threats and military exercises to convey its willingness to use the weapons, further increases this risk. Such actions are intended to warn those they see as their enemies but can create a dangerous environment where miscommunication or misjudgment leads to unintended consequences​.

Impact of Arms Control Treaties on Russian Nuclear Policy

Arms control treaties have historically shaped and limited Russia's nuclear policy. However, recent developments indicate a shift in Russia's stance on these agreements. For instance, Russia's suspension of participating in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) reflects a broader trend of challenging international arms control frameworks. This suspension allows Russia to expand its strategic nuclear arsenal beyond previously agreed limits, increasing the overall atomic threat level​.

Moreover, Russia's non-compliance with other treaties, such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, and its reluctance to engage in new arms control negotiations further complicate global nuclear stability. These actions undermine efforts to reduce nuclear arms and increase transparency, making it harder to prevent nuclear proliferation and maintain strategic stability. And, it goes without saying, it greatly increases the risk of nuclear war between Russia and other states.

Put simply, Russia's nuclear doctrine, with its emphasis on both strategic and tactical nuclear weapons, creates significant risks for misinterpretation and escalation. The current stance on arms control treaties adds another layer of complexity, increasing the potential for a renewed nuclear arms race and heightened global tensions.

What Could Trigger a Nuclear Conflict Between Russia and the U.S.?

One significant trigger for a potential nuclear conflict between Russia and the U.S. is the escalation of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. If Russia perceives a severe threat to its military position or political stability, it could use nuclear weapons. For example, substantial battlefield losses or a threat to the existence of the Russian regime could push President Vladimir Putin to expand the conflict, especially as Ukraine continues to strike targets inside Russia. This scenario involves Russia using non-strategic nuclear weapons to prevent a perceived existential threat, especially if conventional military options fail to deliver the desired outcomes​.

The use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, even tactically, would likely provoke a severe response to a nuclear threat from NATO and the U.S., significantly raising the risk of broader atomic conflict. This could be triggered by Russia's desperation to avoid defeat or to compel Ukraine and its Western allies to halt their military support and negotiations. What's worse, it could cause NATO allies to use nuclear weapons in response and strike Russian territory.

Military Targets Inside Russian Territory

Another potential trigger for nuclear conflict is an attack on military targets inside Russian territory, especially bases that house Russian nuclear weapons. If the U.S. or NATO forces were to strike Russian military infrastructure, particularly those related to its nuclear command and control, Russia might interpret this as a threat. Such an action could lead Russia to respond with using tactical nuclear weapons to protect its strategic assets and prevent further attacks.

Furthermore, the ambiguity in what constitutes an existential threat to Russia increases the risk of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation. Russian doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons if the state perceives that its survival is at stake, which can be subjectively interpreted by Russian leadership. Therefore, any significant military action by NATO or the U.S. inside Russian territory could be seen as crossing this threshold, leading to a potentially catastrophic situation.

Therefore, both the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and attacks on military targets inside Russian territory hold significant risks for triggering a full-fledged nuclear conflict. Continuous diplomatic efforts and clear communication are needed to manage these risks and prevent miscalculations that could lead to an unintended war and maintain nuclear security.

How Would a Nuclear Attack on the U.S. Unfold?

As mentioned above, in the event of a nuclear attack, Russia would likely target key U.S. cities and military installations. Major metropolitan areas include Washington D.C., New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, and San Francisco. These are prime targets due to their dense populations and economic significance. These cities also house infrastructure like government facilities, financial hubs, and energy plants, making them strategic points for maximizing disruption.

Military installations, especially those having strategic assets such as missile silos, nuclear submarines, and command centers, would also be primary targets. The objective would be to impede the U.S.'s ability to respond and retaliate effectively and to handicap its non-strategic nuclear forces. After all, Russia does have the largest nuclear arsenal.

Possible Scenarios of Nuclear Explosion

The use of nuclear weapons would result in catastrophic immediate and long-term effects. Upon detonation, a fireball would vaporize everything within its core radius. The intense heat generated would cause severe burns and ignite fires over a wide area. The shockwave following the explosion would demolish buildings and infrastructure and could result in widespread casualties. An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) would knock out electronic devices, causing communication breakdowns and power outages.

The radioactive fallout would also spread over a vast area, carried by wind patterns, and result in long-term health issues such as radiation sickness and cancer. This fallout would contaminate food and water supplies, complicating rescue and recovery operations and posing a significant health risk to survivors.

Even though the risk of using nuclear weapons by Russia in the USA is extremely remote, it doesn't mean that Russia will never use them. Despite all the nuclear arms control treaties in place, the Russian defense ministry and their military has shown time and again that they do not pay any regard to them. Russia remains a credible threat, especially as the West continues to support troops in Ukraine. 

Impact on U.S. Civilian and Military Infrastructure

The impact on civilian infrastructure would be devastating. In addition to the immediate destruction and loss of life, there would be long-term disruptions to essential services. Power grids, communication networks, and water supplies would be heavily compromised. Transportation networks, including roads, bridges, and airports, would suffer significant damage, hampering emergency response and evacuation efforts.

Military infrastructure would also be heavily affected. The loss of key bases and command centers would hinder the U.S.'s ability to coordinate defense or launch a retaliatory strike, significantly weakening national security and defense capabilities.

Overall, a nuclear attack on the U.S. would result in massive casualties, extensive infrastructure damage, and long-term environmental and health consequences. The potential for such an event underscores the importance of preventive measures, defense systems, and ongoing diplomatic efforts to mitigate the risk of nuclear conflict.

Personal Preparedness for Nuclear Threats

Being prepared can significantly improve your chances of survival and safety in the unlikely but serious event of a nuclear attack. 

Here are practical steps to prepare, the importance of emergency plans and survival kits, and resources for further information and training.

Step 1: Stay informed and up to date with the latest news from reliable sources about nuclear attacks. This will help you plan and understand your local warning signals, and what different alerts mean.

Step 2: Identify safe locations in your home, such as a basement or an interior room without windows, where you can shelter during a nuclear event.

Step 3: Build a survival kit, and make sure you add the essentials. These include water (one gallon per person per day for at least three days), non-perishable food, a battery-powered or hand-crank radio, a flashlight, extra batteries, a first aid kit, dust masks, plastic sheeting and duct tape, moist towelettes, garbage bags, plastic ties, medications, pet supplies, and important documents in a waterproof container. 

You will want to purchase a high-quality gas mask. We recommend the CM-6M Tactical Gas Mask from MIRA Safety. It’s used by government agencies around the globe, and has proven to be resilient against nuclear contamination. 

Step 4: Learn to live without gas, electricity, and water. Though unpleasant, it will improve your survival skills. Also, learn about CPR and other basic life-saving techniques.

Importance of Emergency Plans and Survival Kits

An emergency plan and a well-stocked survival kit can significantly reduce panic and confusion, making protecting yourself and your loved ones easier during a nuclear event. These preparations ensure you have access to necessary supplies and know how to stay safe until help arrives.

Resources for Further Information and Preparedness Training

For further information and training on emergency preparedness, consider these resources:

  • FEMA and the CDC provide guidelines and resources for various emergencies, including nuclear incidents.

  • Ready.gov offers a range of resources and checklists for preparedness.

  • The American Red Cross provides training in first aid, CPR, and emergency preparedness.

  • Local emergency management agencies can offer specific information for your area, such as evacuation routes and local shelters.

Ensuring Your Safety Amidst Nuclear Threats

In this article, we covered Russia's current threats of nuclear war, the likelihood of an attack, and how both national and personal preparedness can mitigate these risks. These are only to inform and arm you with the knowledge you need to save yourself and your family in the event of a nuclear attack on the United States from Russia. Being aware of what to obtain from MIRA Safety will provide additional protection for your family against any potential threats.