Will China invade Taiwan?
The roots of the answer lie fifty years ago, in 1972, when then-President Richard Nixon made a historic trip to the People’s Republic of China.
It was the first time that a sitting U.S. President had ever met with a leader of the PRC—and the first contact after twenty-five years of non-communication and diplomatic isolation. During the trip, Nixon and Henry Kissinger, his secretary of state, spent days in private conversation with Chairman Mao.
(Image source: Image courtesy of U.S. National Archives)
The three men discussed a wide range of issues and policies, both foreign and domestic. When it came to the topic of Taiwan, Mao surprised Nixon by remarking that it was “better to have Taiwan under the care of the United States now.”
But then his words turned ominous. “A hundred years hence, we will want [Taiwan].”
Kissinger was suprsied. “Not a hundred years.”
“It is hard to say,” Mao responded. “Five years, ten, twenty, a hundred years. It’s hard to say.”
But the implication was clear—China would take Taiwan, and it would only be a matter of time.
Kissinger would later tell the press, “I believe the ultimate joining of Taiwan and China … it’s the objective of Chinese policy, as it has been since the creation of the current regime.”
And now, a half-century later, Mao’s hundred-year promise seems as relevant as ever.
As such, Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stated that “reunification” with Taiwan “must be fulfilled,” and he hasn’t ruled out the use of force to make this happen.
Indeed, in 2021, multiple PRC military planes entered Taiwanese airspace—blazing through the country’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
Plus, in the summer of 2022, the Chinese military held its largest-ever military exercises in the air and sea around Taiwan, test firing missiles dangerously close to the island nation.
China’s planned “danger zones” practically encircled Taiwan, crossing its maritime border in the North and encroaching on territorial waters.
The message sent by these exercises seems quite apparent, judging from the map:
China’s obsession with reunification isn’t mutual.
Only 5% of Taiwan’s citizens support reunification. And while they may not be interested in outright independence, they don’t want to do away with their existing system either. Taiwan ranks in the top 10 on the democracy index and is a bastion of freedom in Asian society.
(Image source: Image courtesy of BBC)
In other words, the Taiwanese may become eager to defend their way of life in the face of Chinese assault.
So what would a war between China and Taiwan look like? What are the implications of an all-out assault or an economic blockade?
Let’s take a deeper look into this conflict—and the potential splash damage that could reach our shores if and when war breaks out.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
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01
Breaking Down China’s Interest in Taiwan
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02
How Will China Invade Taiwan
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03
Winnie the Pooh’s Deadly Invasion?
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04
Could China Nuke America? Or Taiwan?
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05
Get Ready for China’s World War III
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06
A New Empire
Breaking Down China’s Interest in Taiwan
The island of Taiwan has been settled for over 25,000 years.
The ancestors of today’s indigenous Taiwanese people first showed up on the island roughly 6,000 years ago.
But it wasn’t until the 17th century that Chinese citizens began immigrating to the country.
Dutch settlers initially brought them in. But in 1683, it was officially annexed by China’s Qing dynasty. China would only hold the island until 1895, though, when Taiwan ceded to the empire of Japan. China briefly reclaimed the island a half-century later, in 1945, but then lost it again during the Chinese Civil War of 1949.
In other words—during the 25,000 years Taiwan has been occupied, China has technically only controlled it for 216 years. Less than 1% of the time.
And yet, control over Taiwan has become a significant priority of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
They have even gone so far as to pressure American celebrities like John Cena to apologize for acknowledging Taiwanese statehood, making China’s motivation indirectly obvious
Just over a decade after China last lost control, Taiwan’s economy took off like a rocket. It was called the “Taiwanese Miracle,” and to this day, it remains one of the most dramatic periods of economic growth in the history of the world:
(Image source: Image courtesy of Wikipedia)
All this growth has put China light-years ahead of competitors regarding tech production.
The tiny island nation produces most of the world’s semiconductors, laptop computers, and motherboards. It’s also well-known as a significant presence in the producing LCD and LED computer monitors.
Just one Taiwanese company produces 92% of the world’s most advanced computer chips, for example.
It’s the consequence of globalization.
Just a generation ago, America and Western Europe produced three-quarters of the world’s semiconductors. But as American companies went “fabless” to cut costs, we outsourced production—
And as a result, one small island became our only resource for the most valuable commodity of the 21st century.
Without access to advanced chips, our economy practically grinds to a halt. More importantly, it becomes almost impossible to replenish military assets widely utilized during a conflict.
Thus, if China can re-take Taiwan and fulfill Mao’s prophecy, they’ll win the next war without firing a single shot and control of the world’s most important technological commodity in a single sweep.
Due to the ongoing chip shortage, lead times are still an astronomical 26 weeks. That’s half a year to wait between placing your initial order and finally receiving the chips purchased.
Even if a blockade was only partially successful, lead times could skyrocket, which in turn, could practically derail the global economy in a matter of weeks.
But what if we started building our own semiconductor chips again?
Good luck with that.
Building a semiconductor processing plant these days requires small fortunes—for example, individual pieces of industrial manufacturing equipment cost anywhere from $400,000 to $7,000,000.
Some necessary instruments can cost upwards of $340,000,000, and potential loss of productivity due to extensive wait times for procurement.
So even if America and Europe started building semiconductor fabs today, it would be billions of dollars—and a scope of over a decade—before we caught up with current production.
Until then, we would truly be at the mercy of a hostile foreign power to run our economy and keep crucial defenses up-to-date.
Hardly an ideal situation.
How Will China Invade Taiwan
In a previous article, I’ve written about a potential scenario for the Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
That scenario involves an all-out amphibious invasion with over a million screaming Chinese soldiers that would be over before most Americans even heard about it in the news.
We’re talking 3-5 times the size of D-Day.And would the Taiwanese be ready for that?
But the Chinese would be ready for war, too … right?
(Image source: Image courtesy of BBC)
After writing that last article, I had the pleasure of speaking with a Cold War-era Pentagon official. He was a man who spent several years of his life in an Icelandic bunker tracking Soviet aircraft.
When asked if we might see China invade Taiwan, he just shrugged.
“Why even invade?”
He pointed out that China wouldn’t need to commit massive military resources to overrun the island.
Instead, as Mao said, they’ve got 50 years. Blockade Taiwan, starve them out, and cut their exports.
The net result would be the same, albeit in a matter of years instead of days, but the blockade would vastly diminish the cost of doing so.
Even a limited blockade could massively interrupt one of the world’s busiest trade routes.
We’ve already seen what an interruption in semiconductor supply chains can do to American markets.
Imagine if an interruption turns into slashed outputs of 20% or 30%.
According to the New York Times, “China’s military strategists see a blockade as a strategy that gives them the flexibility to tighten or loosen a noose around Taiwan, depending on Beijing’s objectives.”
The Times further adds that war may not even be the goal.
But as the confrontation between two key superpowers escalates, according to a professor from George Washington University, “at some point they’re going to run out of headroom for doing ever-louder saber rattling.”
In other words, one side may feel politically forced to take action.
Winnie the Pooh’s Deadly Invasion?
Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has just won an unprecedented third of four possible terms as President of the People’s Republic of China.
If you want to know what type of guy Xi is, here goes—
The internet at one point compared him to Winnie the Pooh. After that, he banned all Winnie the Pooh films:
(Image source: Image courtesy of The Guardian)
That is the level of integrity we’re dealing with here.
As soon as Xi won his third term, he ousted his last primary opponents and elevated his cronies into virtually every seat of power.
At this point, he has fewer people keeping his power in check than Elon Musk, and some observers fear this could lead to him finally following through on his pledge to annex Taiwan.
His massive grab for power wasn’t without consequence, of course. Stock markets crashed the following week, but the PRC’s military forays have rarely suffered a slowdown by recession or economic issues.
We’re likely to see a recession in 2023. And considering Russia’s recent struggles to achieve military objectives in Ukraine, it’s unlikely that China would be willing to lose face by pressing the issue with Taiwan.
Moreover, China doesn’t need microprocessors made in Taiwan.
China produces a large percentage of its technology, and it’s not quite as sophisticated, but the PRC has always been mindful not to become addicted to cheap chips from their island neighbor.
So, in line with Mao’s initial promise, there was no rush to take Taiwan quickly.
All of this makes it less likely we’ll see China invade Taiwan.
And it also makes a blockade that much more likely.
Taiwan is presently boosting its energy inventories to prepare for a blockade. A recent Bloomberg article pointed to the potentially devastating impact for multiple Asian countries should China blockade Taiwan.
In October of 2022, the Commander of U.S. Naval Forces assured Americans that our superior naval forces could break a blockade if necessary. Moreover, more than half of Americans (52%) believe nations should take action to protect Taiwan, and 51% of Britons agree.
That consensus is critical when it comes to significant military action.
More importantly, it means that most Americans would happily put American naval warships in close proximity to the Chinese blockade—which could produce a recipe for World War III.
Chinese officials have already told U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that America was sending “very wrong, dangerous signals” regarding Taiwan. Chinese President Xi “Winnie the Pooh” Jinping even went so far as to directly inform President Biden that Taiwan was dangerous and “those who play with fire will perish by it.”
In response to all the bluster, officials from Washington reminded China that the peace enjoyed since 1979 “rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means.”
That means the consequences of China attacking Taiwan could be severe.
Could China Nuke America? Or Taiwan?
The short answer is “yes, but it almost certainly won’t happen.”
There’s arguably a greater risk of a nuclear attack (or even a reactor meltdown) in Ukraine.
Since China first built nuclear weapons in 1964, the U.S. has possessed a much more significant stockpile.
According to the Department of Defense, the U.S. has around 1,750 operational warheads.
China is estimated to possesss around 200—which could double in the next decade.
(Image source: Image courtesy of Department of Defense)
Due to being so outmatched, China’s strategy has historically been one of “second strike.” That means instead of ever taking the initiative with an alpha strike on nuclear silos, they can only threaten a retaliatory strike on an adversary’s major cities.
In its worst-case scenario, this is terrible news for anyone within 50 miles of a major city.
But data leaked in 2021 indicate that China is producing more nuclear weapons faster to achieve either parity with, or superiority over, the United States.
A direct attack seems extremely unlikely without the capacity for an alpha strike, likewise with an attack on Taiwan.
China is just as reliant as Taiwan upon the global economy. Launching nukes would make them an instant pariah in the international community, which is the opposite of what they want.
Nevertheless, China should not be taken lightly with hundreds of nuclear weapons currently stockpiled.
According to Defense Priorities’ Mike Sweeney:
“There is still a fundamental misreading—perhaps on both sides—of the ability to manage escalation in Taiwan contingencies for reasons beyond strict operational matters. The very fact of China attempting something as complex and challenging as an amphibious invasion of an island of 24 million people would show an unwelcome tolerance for risk. For that matter, U.S. efforts to defend said island—halfway around the world on another nuclear power’s doorstep—also shows a fair amount of audacity. Put differently, the act of aggression against Taiwan and the effort to repel such an attack both demonstrate that each side is willing to take actions which could be viewed as inherently risky.”
A nuclear attack on Taiwan could send up a plume of fallout that would streak across hundreds of miles—potentially reducing global food production for years to come.
Yet nuclear weapons may not even be necessary in the end.
Because another half of the American population lives within 50 miles of an active nuclear reactor, these reactors could be vulnerable to cyber-attack depending on connectivity and grid security.
Similar cyber-attacks could target the reinforced power grids that run our hospitals; they could also scramble air traffic control, or erase essential financial records—all from half a world away.
Trade relations between America and China would be restricted—if not completely cut off. Restrictions would also begin sooner than most people might realize, potentially within weeks of a blockade’s outset.
That means there are a few key steps you should already be taking to …
Get Ready for China’s World War III
First, as always, it’s great to have at least a one-month supply (preferably more) of all your essentials, including:
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Food
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Water
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Medicine
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Hygiene products
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Pet Needs
If trade halts between the U.S. and China, we could see some of the worst widespread shortages since World War II. These consumer items might disappear from shelves for weeks or months at a time. So it’s essential to be prepared for anything.
Power outages or rolling blackouts could restrict access. You simply never know what will happen, but as long as you have a closet, you have room for these.
Backup technology products are a good idea as well. Dust off that old laptop to make sure it’s still working. Pick up a spare smartphone, if possible. If and when China blockades Taiwan, these kinds of items could instantly become hot commodities. And if cyber-attacks rise, your existing hardware could become more vulnerable.
It’s also wise to back up your personal financial and medical records on paper and in a safe place. In a cyber-attack scenario, you’ll have paper proof of your most recent balances, transactions, and medical conditions.
What about Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)?
Nuclear fallout can travel hundreds of miles, so it’s essential to be mindful of what might happen in a worst-case scenario.
Dollar for dollar, the most valuable tool for protecting your family from potential fallout is Thyrosafe.
These FDA-approved potassium iodide tablets are formulated to flood your thyroid glands with safe iodine. This prevents your body from absorbing potentially deadly I-131 isotopes that can be dispersed into the atmosphere following a nuclear attack or reactor meltdown.
Thyrosafe tablets are affordable, portable, and have a 7-year shelf life. It’s the only FDA-approved potassium iodide supplement on the market today.
With Thyrosafe, you take the tablet the moment you hear of a potential threat—even if it is hundreds or thousands of miles away. That makes Thyrosafe the perfect protection for hazards that may be half a world away.
Next up, there’s the Geiger-2 Dosimeter. If you’ve ever heard of a Geiger Counter, you know exactly what you’re dealing with here.
The Geiger-2 can read radiation levels as low as 0.999 μSv/h and provide readings in as little as 20 seconds. That means you’ll be able to detect even the slightest variations in background radiation from day to day.
Once again, if you’re dealing with a threat that might be half a world away—that kind of sensitivity matters.
The Geiger-2 also incorporates next-gen features like a 1.1-inch LCD screen, multiple alarm presets, and long-term exposure tracking. The Geiger-2 uses an integrated, rechargeable LiPo battery with a 30-day extended battery life, and recharging takes just two hours.
Finally, when things get close to home, you’ll want a full-face respirator/gas mask like the CM-8M Full-Face Respirator.
This next-gen gas mask was years in the making, and it shows. It features a contoured visor that offers the most expansive field of view while maintaining compatibility with rifle optics and night vision goggles. Optional PROFILM tearaways allow you to clear your visor single-handed in a second.
The mask’s lower half contains all the great features you know and love about MIRA Safety gear. An integrated hydration system, speech diaphragm, and a hypoallergenic oro-nasal cup minimize fogging. Like all MIRA Safety’s masks, you can swap the same accessories, including gas mask microphones, PAPRs, and Voice Projection Units.
For filters, the CM-8M uses the 40mm NATO standard. Comparable next-gen masks use proprietary filters and are not available to the public. MIRA Safety recommends the NBC-77 SOF.
A New Empire
Taiwan would be more than just a crown jewel for China’s 21st Century empire—
It would be a critical strategic asset on the world stage.
By seizing the most critical technology center on the planet, China would put its adversaries at a disadvantage … one that would take America more than a decade to catch up from.
Semiconductor factories or not, the opportunity to cripple western technology is there. The only question is, how far is Xi Jinping willing to reach for it? And more importantly, will anyone even be in control when it happens?
Even a military standoff, such as a naval blockade (which is all but inevitable at this point) could rapidly spiral out of control and into conflict.
If and when that happens, it will suddenly become “too late” to acquire PPE.
We know because we’ve seen it.
So take steps now to protect yourself and your family from the back blast of a potential conflict between Taiwan, China … and possibly the United States.