If there were ever a reason to spend at least some time prepping how to survive the worst conceivable scenario it would be that mankind spends a great deal of time thinking about how to destroy one another.
Such was the case when an American nuclear scientist proposed a 10,000 megaton hydrogen bomb in what was known as Project Sundial. If detonated in the middle of the United States, the fireball would extend up to 100 miles out. Everything within 1,000 miles would suffer third degree burns. It would ignite fires across the continent and the winds would reach hurricane status larger than multiple states.
It would trigger a 9.0 earthquake and the United States would effectively cease to exist and soon enough as nuclear winter set in, the world would follow our path. So let's raise a toast to humanity that the project was abandoned in the 1950's as to even test such a bomb would bring about global destruction. However, because the bomb was conceivably possible, it's worth exploring the depths of humanity's ability to destroy one another.
The Origins of Project Sundial Edward Teller's Role in Conceptualizing the Biggest Nuclear Bomb How Powerful Was the Proposed 10-Gigaton Bomb? Theoretical Destructive Capabilities and Fallout Compared to Hiroshima Why Was Project Sundial Never Realized? Impact of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty on Super-Weapon Development Surviving the 10-Gigaton Nuclear Weapon and the Tsar Bomba Final Thoughts on Project SundialTable of Contents
The Origins of Project Sundial
If one is to truly understand what would make mankind create such a destructive weapon, one has to view Project Sundial in context of the times. Nuclear weapons dropped by the United States in Japan as a result of the Manhattan Project had just brought World War 2 to a close in 1945.
By 1949, the Soviet Union tested their own fission nuclear weapons and President Harry Truman declared the race was on. A meeting of the general advisory committee of the Atomic Energy Commission put out a bulletin that would push the nuclear arms race to new heights.
How many nuclear weapons does a country need? In the 1950's the answer was always more. How big should that nuclear weapon be? The answer was always bigger. The United States developed an appetite for more weapons and one nuclear scientist would show them just how big the feast could be.
Edward Teller's role in conceptualizing the biggest nuclear bomb
This led nuclear scientist, Edward Teller, to lead a conceptual project to test the limits of nuclear arms. It is unclear if there was any actual attempt to develop this weapon given the gravity of its destruction, but this top secret mission was to find those limits, even if only in theory. Conducted out of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, what Teller proposed was truly frightening.
How powerful was the proposed 10-Gigaton Bomb?
To truly understand the immense destructive power of this weapon, one has to do a little math. A 10 gigaton nuclear weapon is the equivalent of 10,000 megatons. The largest nuclear bomb ever dropped was the Tsar Bomba which was tested by the Soviet Union in 1961. The largest nuclear weapon ever dropped only released 50 megatons of nuclear energy.
Meanwhile, the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima and killed an estimated 140,000 people produced a yield of only 15,000 kilotons, or 0.015 megatons. The fireball produced in Hiroshima was about 1,000 feet or just 1/3rd of a kilometer in diameter.
The fireball produced by the Soviet bomb was 5 miles in diameter. If the 10 megaton weapon were ever dropped it is estimated that it would produce a fireball 100 miles in diameter. That's everything between New York and Philadelphia gone in a second.
Theoretical destructive capabilities and fallout compared to Hiroshima
As with any atomic weapon, those instantly disintegrated in the fireball may very well be the lucky ones. Using Hiroshima as an example, those outside of the fireball and yet, within 1 to 2 miles of the blast experience a shockwave moving at several times the speed of sound. Buildings were destroyed and anyone caught in the open was knocked to the ground.
Thermal radiation also stretched for miles out and caused third degree burns on anyone caught out in the open. Fires were produced all around and merged into super firestorms which consumed much of the city not hit by the fireball. Radiation fallout consumed the same area and drifted in the winds for miles. Windows were shattered some 7 miles out from the blast.
Now, let's consider the impact of a 10,000 megaton explosion which is more than 650,000 times more powerful than that produced in Hiroshima. To say nothing of the 100 mile fireball, buildings thousands of miles away would take damage. Thermal radiation would create firestorms the size of a continent. Radiation fallout would span the oceans and affect multiple continents. The EMP effect would render all modern technology useless nuclear winter set in. Even Alex Wellerstein's popular online nuke map can't replicate the effects of such a bomb.
Why was Project Sundial never realized?
It's not hard to see why this project never moved beyond the theoretical and into the engineering and construction phase. The amount of resources necessary to move this towards reality would have been astronomical. Not to mention that there are already enough thermonuclear weapons in existence to send the world into nuclear winter.
On top of that, the first time that you tested such a weapon, even if it had been smaller, would have been enough to cause extreme devastation to the environment. Project Sundial emerged in the 50's, but thankfully by the 60s the global superpowers started to recognize what they had unleashed.
Impact of the nuclear test ban treaty on super-weapon development
In 1963, the United States, Soviet Union and the United Kingdom all signed the Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT). It was a sign of remarkable cooperation given it was the peak of the Cold War. However, it was a signal that those testing nuclear weapons were now fully realizing the impact those tests were having on the planet. The atomic energy commission would still continue aggressive research in nuclear fusion and testing, but there were now limits.
This treaty prohibited the testing of nuclear weapons in the atmosphere, under water, and in outer space. Even the Tsar Bomba would be stopped in its tracks as there was no longer a viable way to test the 50 megaton bomb. To even test a prototype of such a bomb was now a global taboo. For the first time since the first atomic bomb in 1949 was obtained by the Soviet Union, the nuclear arms race was cooling down. A 10,000 megaton nuclear weapon made for great theory, but it made for poor policy on the behalf of all humanity.
Surviving the 10-Gigaton Nuclear Weapon and the Tsar Bomba
Because the team here at MIRA loves all things survival and Project Sundial was indeed a theoretical weapon, we're going to muse about how to survive both that and the 50-megaton Tsar Bomba. We'll start with the easiest/worst answer first.
Surviving the 10,000 megaton theoretical nuclear weapon
Fortunately for humanity, even a 10,000 megaton explosion wouldn't kill every single human on the planet, at first. If the 10 gigaton weapon were dropped on Washington D.C., people as far away as Philadelphia could be caught in the immediate fireball and people as far away as Miami, Memphis, and Chicago would suffer third degree burns.
Roughly 60% of the U.S. population lives east of the Mississippi River and that leaves over half of the population gone during or shortly after the initial blast. It would be hell on Earth for anyone seeking to escape the carnage. Your best chance would be that you are fortunate enough to live on the outer edges and you can escape before the firestorms kick up into hurricane status.
While it is possible that a country could have more than one 10,000 megaton bomb, just the one would do the trick. This might spare some of those on the west coast of the United States from the immediate fallout. Though it is thought that the blast would create a 9.0 earthquake which would significantly disrupt the entire geological order.
As the entire world shifted into nuclear winter, survival would be less of an individual level and more of a species level event. Global temperatures would plummet resulting in mass starvation. Can humanity grow enough food? Will the radiation abide? Does a single electronic device still work? We're confident that prepared individuals in places like Montana and Idaho would fare well. However, it eventually becomes a question of if humanity could survive long-term.
All the potassium iodide pills in the world won't do you any good if humans lose the ability to grow food or find clean water. Think a Planet of the Apes level reset for humanity if we do survive at all.
Surviving the 50 megaton Tsar Bomba
Thankfully, the prospects look better for the Tsar Bomba. As big as that weapon is, the strike would still be relatively local on a global scale. The fireball would only extend around 5 miles instead of 100. That means more than twice the width of Manhattan Island and nearly half the length. A strike here would kill 10 million the first day, but escape from the island would be virtually impossible.
Heavy blast damage would extend into New Jersey as radioactive fallout made the Northeast coast of the United States unlivable for some time. If you are fortunate enough to be outside of the fireball and blast area, you may be tempted to make a run for it. This would be a bad idea in the first 24 to 48 hours when the fallout is the highest.
Shelter in place, seal doors and windows. Now would be a great time to pull out a handheld Geiger Counter and keep those potassium iodide pills at the ready. The next decision you have to make after the radiation is lower is whether to bug out or stay in place. This will very much be dictated by where you live and if you are in the path of continued radiation. At this point, surviving the Tsar Bomba becomes little different than surviving any nuclear incident. It's just a big one. Same prepping rules apply.
Final Thoughts on Project Sundial
We've always known to some degree that humans, via nuclear weapons, have created the ability to put humanity on the verge of extinction. Many were just not aware that humanity conceived of a way to do that with one single bomb in the 1950's. It is a sobering aspect to consider, particularly with the emergence of artificial intelligence.
If humanity would have struggled to put this theoretical weapon into action, is this a problem that artificial intelligence can figure out for us. In less than 100 years, humans went from flying the first airplane to walking on the moon and sending robots to Mars. What is the learning curve for AI when it comes to weapons of global destruction? If humans can conceive of such a weapon just 10 years after detonating the first nuclear device, what can AI figure out in 20 years?
Despite the fun and frightening theory behind this project, we never encourage humans to live in fear. We encourage them to prepare, train, and prepare some for the day that most people dread. Humans are hardwired to survive and, who knows, maybe the experts are wrong and would as a species survive the 10,000 megaton bomb. We just hope we never have to find out. Keep training friends and reach out to us if we can be of any help.